Why You Can’t ‘Beat The Markets’

Do take 2 minutes and watch this short video.

wisdom-of-crowdsIn ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’, James Surowiecki explains how groups can be remarkably intelligent – often more so than the smartest people in them.  This is particularly relevant to the price of individual stocks, or indeed other financial assets that are efficiently traded in a broad open market. 

Dimensional Fund Advisors call this ‘The Power of Markets’, and in the above video they elegantly explain why you can’t beat the market – because the price is already ‘right’ on the basis of known information and crowd wisdom.

Popular Posts

How to Read a Fund Fact-Sheet

Image
Has your adviser given you a factsheet on a recommended fund, and you need to understand what the terms mean? If so, read on … The fund factsheet is an essential document for the private investor. Unfortunately, the information contained in a factsheet - and the way it is presented - is not controlled in the same way as it is in a fund prospectus (a prospectus is a legal document). In essence a factsheet is marketing literature. Only a tiny fraction of investors ever read the formal prospectus for a fund, that’s why it’s especially important to be able to read a fund factsheet correctly, and if necessary to read between the lines. Key Contents Of A Factsheet Most fund factsheets will contain some or all of the following: Fund Name Many funds are commonly referred to by a short or abbreviated version of the full fund name. Hence it’s important to make use of the identifying codes (see below). Fund Management Company & Domicile The fund management company is structured and reg
Read more

Understanding Compound and Annualised Growth

Image
Across fund manager houses, there is little standardisation of how performance figures are presented on fact sheets. Percentage returns are usually presented as either (i) discrete (or calendar) annual, (ii) cumulative (for example a total return figure for 3 years or 5 years) or (iii) annualised (the equivalent annualised return for a period such as 3 or 5 years, sometimes called compound annual return). This tutorial shows you how to convert from discrete annual performance figures, to cumulative or annualised figures, over a period of your choice. As an example, we’ll look at some USD fund performance data presented in an October 2010 factsheet. The performance data are presented to us in a very clear way, but may not be the complete picture we are looking for. The table directly above shows the discrete annual returns - ie. net of fees the fund delivered 7.46% in 2009, -4.90% in 2008, 9.82% in 2007, etc. But let’s suppose you ask yourself (or your advisor) “What was the total growt
Read more

Tax Free Savings Plans for Australians?

Image
Question: How can returning Australians (and expats moving to Australia) make MASSIVE tax savings by using offshore investment bonds and investment-linked life policy wrappers? Answer: Set it up while you’re an expat working abroad, and keep it running at least ten years (even if you go back home) for maximum tax benefits. (Note: this article is relevant to expatriate Australians working in Singapore and other overseas locations, as well as other nationalities who may be moving to Australia in the future.) Click to download a copy of this information in PDF format. Background - Repeal of Foreign Investment Fund legislation For several years the Australian Tax Office (ATO) had very defined, and perhaps harsh, rules for how foreign insurance bonds were treated in respect of capital gains for tax residents in Australia. In effect, these tax wrappers were treated in a ‘look through’ manner and holders were liable for tax on actual gains made or at a deemed rate set by the authorities
Read more

Should UK Expats Pay National Insurance Contributions?

Image
I live outside the UK - should I make voluntary National Insurance contributions? The decision on whether to make voluntary NI contributions depends on your own specific circumstances. National Insurance contributions for British expats? First a quick reminder. National Insurance (NI) contributions go principally to fund the National Health Service (NHS), the state pension, unemployment benefits, and sickness and disability allowances. Anyone employed in the UK will have an NI number, and make NI contributions via PAYE (pay-as-you-earn) deduction from salary. These are known Class 1 NI contributions (NICs). If you’re self-employed in the UK, you pay Class 2 NICs at a flat weekly rate, and annually Class 4 NICs based on taxable profits. If you are working abroad for up to two years and for a UK-based employer, you will likely be required to continue paying Class 1 NICs.  Alternatively, you can choose to pay voluntary contributions, Class 2 or Class 3. Depending on your circumstances, vo
Read more

British Expat? Here are the Huge UK Tax Benefits of an Offshore Investment Plan...

Image
Would you like to maximise the tax planning benefits of being a British expat abroad? Read on for a summary of some key reliefs and allowances available from the HMRC tax man… (Note: this article is relevant to British expatriates working in Singapore and other overseas locations, as well as other nationalities who may be moving to UK in the future.) Click to download this information in PDF format. Summary of Tax Benefits of an Offshore Investment Plan Under HMRC tax rules for ‘ foreign ’ investment bonds and investment-linked life policies have additional tax planning benefits compared with their domestic equivalents. The purpose of this article is to briefly highlight the most important. The content is not intended to be specific tax advice of any kind, and rules can change at any time. Everyone’s tax situation is unique and you should consult a qualified tax accountant regarding your own circumstances. 5% withdrawal allowance Time apportionment reduction Top slicing relief
Read more

What Can Bitcoin Teach Us About Retirement Planning?

Image
So, you’re in the pub one evening, and a friend tells you about some fancy ‘investment’ called cryptocurrency. It all sounds a bit fishy. “I’ve been getting eight percent growth per month”, he says. You do the maths on your phone… $100 would become $108 after the first month. Then $117 after the second month. Then $126 the third. By the end of a year, it would be $252. That’s an annualised growth rate of 152% per annum. “Ok. Tell me more”, you say. You’re still a bit sceptical, but you drop $100 into the crypto. ~ ~ ~ A month later, you’re back in the pub. “What do you think?”, says your friend. “Not bad, I’m up seventeen bucks”, you say. “Well, I’ve been putting in a thousand a month. I started ten months ago. My investment is now worth $15,650. Make hay while the sun shines, my friend!” ~ ~ ~ You get it. There’s an opportunity here. Your drinking buddy is onto something. That evening you go online and look through all those old bank accounts you’ve forgotten about. You manage to scra
Read more

How to Manage Currency Risk in your Investment Portfolio

Image
Introduction To some degree, currency risk is embedded in the portfolios of every international investor. So it’s surprising that such an important topic is often ignored, mismanaged, or misunderstood from both outside and inside the financial planning industry. Given that global currency movements are prominent in the headlines right now, it seems like good timing to have a quick review of currency risk, and safety-check that the currency exposure of our personal investment portfolio is in line with our objectives. What Is Currency Risk and Where Does It Come From? Most people who live and work internationally have experienced first-hand the impact of positive or negative currency movements; this is currency risk (also called exchange rate risk). Maybe you’re sending money home each month to pay your mortgage, and payments are easier than before because you get paid in a stronger currency. Or maybe your child wants to attend university in a country whose currency has appreciated again
Read more

Mobile Phone Screens Are Getting SMALLER!

Image
If you bought a “6-inch” screen phone this year, it will have a SMALLER screen than the “6-inch” screen phone you bought two years ago.  Here’s why. Call me old-fashioned (or just old), but I spend a lot of time reading stuff – articles, charts, and data – on my phone.  And I mean actually reading it – not ‘skimming’ through an article while my thumb is continually scrolling the page upwards. A ‘Full HD’ screen is 1920 x 1080 pixels – which is nice for movies, and gives an eye-friendly ‘book page’ ratio of 16:9.   This has been the standard screen ratio of mobile phones for several years, up to the last year or so, when suddenly manufacturers have switched to a 18:9 ratio  (which is 2:1 by the way… no idea why they call it 18:9, duh).   For me, 16:9 is perfect for reading text.  2:1 isn’t – it’s too thin and narrow.   Supposedly, manufacturers have switched to this format because phones with skinnier screens fit into our pockets better, and are more easily used with one hand.   They h
Read more

Dollar Cost Averaging

Image
How Regular Savings Create Gains From A Falling Market Dollar Cost Averaging is a strategy in which an investor places a fixed dollar amount (or indeed any other currency) into a given investment such as a unit trust, on a regular basis. The investment generally takes place each and every month regardless of what is occurring in the financial markets. As a result, when the price of a given investment rises, the investor will be able to purchase fewer units. When the price declines, the investor will be able to purchase more units. Millions of investors around the world employ a dollar cost averaging strategy because it offers the following benefits: It’s an attractive option for investors who want to contribute to their investment portfolios on a regular basis. It eliminates the issue of ‘market timing.’ As a result, an investor’s returns will be determined more by the overall trend in a given fund as opposed to the investor’s specific entry price. In addition, it helps investors reduc
Read more